Withdraw 4% of starting balance in year 1, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation every year after.
Identical to the 4% Rule but starts at 3.5% — a more conservative starting withdrawal.
Each year, withdraw 4% of your current portfolio value — not a fixed dollar amount.
All models assume your annual withdrawal is your total cost of living. Returns above your withdrawal rate cause the portfolio to grow; returns below it cause the portfolio to shrink. Use the Pessimistic scenario to stress-test depletion risk.
This calculator lets you compare five retirement withdrawal strategies side by side, under three market scenarios, across your full retirement horizon. Enter your portfolio, retirement age, and life expectancy — results update instantly. Learn more about each model →
What Is This?
A free, browser-based tool for projecting how different withdrawal strategies perform over a retirement lasting decades. Choose from three simple models — the 4% Rule, 3.5% Rule, and Dynamic Spending — or enable advanced models including Guyton-Klinger Guardrails and Bond Tent. All calculations run locally in your browser. No account required. Whether you are planning a traditional retirement or pursuing Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE), this tool lets you stress-test your withdrawal strategy before it counts.
Why Compare Five Strategies?
No single withdrawal strategy is optimal for every retiree. The 4% Rule offers predictability; Dynamic Spending protects against depletion; Guyton-Klinger balances higher starting income with automatic guardrails. Seeing all five on the same chart — under pessimistic, base, and optimistic returns — reveals which strategy fits your risk tolerance and income needs.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule states that a retiree can withdraw 4% of their starting portfolio in year one, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year, and have a high probability of not running out of money over a 30-year retirement. It originated from the Trinity Study, a landmark 1998 paper analyzing historical U.S. stock and bond returns from 1926–1995. It remains the most widely cited benchmark in retirement income planning.
What is a safe withdrawal rate?
A safe withdrawal rate (SWR) is the percentage of your portfolio you can withdraw annually without depleting it over your retirement horizon. The 4% rule is the most cited SWR, but the right rate depends on your time horizon, asset allocation, and spending flexibility. Longer retirements — common in early retirement and FIRE planning — often call for a more conservative rate of 3% to 3.5%.
What is sequence of returns risk?
Sequence of returns risk is the danger that poor market returns in the early years of retirement can permanently impair a portfolio, even if long-run average returns are adequate. Because withdrawals are largest relative to the portfolio in early retirement, a bear market during that window forces you to sell more shares to meet spending — shares that are unavailable to participate in any subsequent recovery. The pessimistic scenario in this tool lets you stress-test each strategy against exactly that environment.
Is this tool suitable for FIRE planning?
Yes. FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) planning typically involves longer retirement horizons — 40 to 50 years rather than the 30-year window the 4% rule was designed around. This tool lets you set any retirement age and life expectancy, so you can model a retirement starting at 40 or 45 across all five strategies. The 3.5% rule and Dynamic Spending model are often better fits for very long retirements than the standard 4% rule.
Does this account for Social Security income?
Not directly. The simulator models portfolio withdrawals only — it does not subtract Social Security, pension, or other income from your annual spending need. To account for guaranteed income, reduce your starting portfolio withdrawal by the amount your guaranteed income covers. For example, if you need $60,000/year and Social Security provides $20,000, model a $40,000 annual withdrawal (or a correspondingly smaller portfolio).
What is the Bond Tent strategy?
The Bond Tent is an asset allocation strategy that temporarily increases bond exposure at and around the retirement date — creating a tent-shaped peak — then glides equity back upward over time. The goal is to reduce sequence-of-returns risk during the most vulnerable window of retirement. After the glide period, higher equity exposure is restored to support long-run growth. It is often paired with a rules-based withdrawal method like Guyton-Klinger.
How is this different from other retirement calculators?
Most calculators show one strategy at a time. This tool runs all five strategies simultaneously under three market scenarios — pessimistic, base, and optimistic — so you can compare them on the same chart and table. The side-by-side view makes trade-offs visible: which strategy preserves the most wealth, which depletes earliest, and how much a bad sequence of returns changes the outcome for each model.